The Cornhusker Callback

A double-barreled Senate campaign history lesson

Stop me if you’re heard this one before.

After fumbling the Senate majority two cycles in a row with a combination of bad candidates and bad luck, Republicans seek to exploit a structurally favorable map with an emphasis on recruitment and coordination. And yet as election day approaches, and the pickups come into focus, a nominal independent threatens to muck up the math against a somnambulant red state incumbent.

The classic analogue here is 2014, when a late-summer exit by the Democratic nominee gave businessman Greg Orman (I) a clean shot against an aging Pat Roberts (R-KS). With the tacit backing of his former party, Orman rode an outsider message and questions regarding Roberts’ residency to a steady polling lead into the fall. In that case a rescue mission by national Republican groups aided by a late-breaking GOP tide buried Orman and propelled Roberts to a comfortable win.

But there’s another cycle—and another race—that may offer a timely lesson. As many know, early on in my career I worked at the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the national party committee with dual charge of incumbent retention and majority building for the Senate GOP. My first cycle at the NRSC was a rough one. Despite nominally being on the cusp of a majority—the 2006 Thumpin’ (and the political world’s inaugural YouTube casualty) abruptly left Rs with 49 seats once the dust settled—the nadir of the second Bush term was such that red state Democrats who would be blown off the map six years later didn’t even draw a challenge in 2008.

So in the run-up to election day, rather than being a few miles down I-10 helping a folksy, party-switching state Treasurer with a familiar name take a crack at Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) for the majority, we were on the gulf coast of Mississippi trying to stave off an Obama-fueled Democratic supermajority. While the politics of the deep south has shifted in the interim, even by the standards of 2008 this was a little strange. The unexpected retirement of Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS) had created an odd dynamic, with Gov. Haley Barbour’s selection of then-Rep. Roger Wicker (R-MS) to fill the vacancy, and setting up a clash between Wicker and Barbour’s Democratic predecessor, Ronnie Musgrove, to fill the remainder of Lott’s term. Between Musgrove’s stature as a recent Governor, Wicker’s low profile outside of his district in the northern part of the state, and something of a moment for Blue Dog Democrats—the delegation featured both newly minted Rep. Travis Childers (D-MS), elected to fill Wicker’s seat, and Rep. Gene Taylor (D-MS), a good old boy who had won and held Lott’s old district for the previous decade—Republicans were not prepared to take any chances in a seat that was dangerously close to #60 for Democrats.

The polls remained too close for comfort throughout the year, handicappers shifted it into increasingly competitive categories (Cook even pegged it as a Toss-up), and both parties poured in millions of dollars down the stretch.

So why am I telling this story? And what does any of this have to do with Nebraska? As it turns out, Wicker was not the only Senator on the ballot that fall. His senior counterpart was Thad Cochran, a Mississippi institution who was up for his regularly scheduled re-election. And while Cochran would famously survive a close shave of his own six years later, the veteran Senator’s broad popularity circa 2008 provided an important tailwind for a newly minted appointee who was not especially well-known throughout the state.

Indeed, Wicker ran ads citing Cochran’s endorsement that featured direct-to-camera testimonial. [I vividly remember Cochran’s flush campaign running ads ostensibly boosting Wicker’s endorsement of Thad, but that may be Mandela effect.) Cochran went on to win that fall by 22 points, ahead of both the McCain-Palin ticket (14) and Wicker (10), reinforcing the decision to play up the association.

A similar double-barreled dynamic is playing out today in Nebraska, only it’s the short-timer with broad support. Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE), a former two-term governor who was appointed to fill the vacancy left by Ben Sasse, is running in a special election to fill Sasse’s unexpired term. Like Cochran in 2008, Ricketts is pacing his embattled colleague, Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE), as well as the GOP presidential ticket, this time led by former President Donald Trump. A New York Times/Siena College poll released today showed Ricketts with a 19-point advantage compared to a 15-point edge for Trump, while Fischer clings to a 2-point lead. The polling averages bear this trend out.

As part of the late scramble to drive up Osborn’s negatives, Fischer’s team has gone on the attack, enlisting President Trump to call the independent out as a “radical left person” and a “Bernie Sanders-type Democrat.”

Taking the luster off of Osborn is a critical part of the challenge, but Fischer’s biggest issue is her low profile. Ironically this was an advantage in the 2012 primary where she was able to benefit from an ugly, expensive fight between two statewide elected Republicans. And despite being a pick-up against a former Democratic Senator in Bob Kerrey (D-NE), the general election turned out to be a sleepy affair. Over her two terms in office, Fischer has done little to attract attention back home, for better or for worse.

Her team has sought to use Trump’s endorsement to this end, running ads centered around his tweet endorsement and radio spots with a Trump testimonial. But Trump is a polarizing figure, even within the state, and his magic rarely rubs off on candidates in an affirmative way.

With just over a week out there isn’t much time, but the Fischer campaign and groups supporting her would be wise to look back at that Mississippi race for inspiration. The Senator’s best path to a third term—the linchpin of a GOP majority—may be to link arms with Ricketts and paint the pair as a Senatorial team working hard for Cornhusker values.