With Congress back home for the first half of a two-week recess period, onlookers are left to ponder what's to come when they return. As ever, the likelihood of success remains a matter of perspective, if not disposition.
Is the mere existence of a privileged budget reconciliation vehicle--and the unthinkability of squandering it--sufficient proof that they will pass something in the end, or is nine months of wheel-spinning, coinciding with a precipitous decline in the President's standing, evidence to the contrary?
Does the anticipated midterm thumping reinforce an individual incentive structure that favors inertia, or will the looming GOP majority(s) amplify the collective Democratic imperative to achieve what they can while they can?
Is the recent rhetoric of the holdouts--Sinema indicating she will "be the same person" should talks resume; Manchin's admonition that we "cannot spend our way to a balanced, healthy economy" while pointing to inflation control and "all-of-the-above" energy priorities--indicative of them trying to get to no, or a road map for how to get them to yes?
On the subject of Sinemanchin, will resolving their public posturing on pay-fors prove to be the breakthrough that paves the way for a deal, or do those enduring differences presage a failure to launch?
Is there a quiet but deliberate plan among senior White House officials and Democratic leaders, borne of lessons learned the hard way, ready to be executed upon Congress' return, or will they continue to wing it, waiting for the Manchins of the world to write the final bill?
Should an agreement come together that can wrangle Senatorial consensus, does its diminished scale, narrow scope, and potential policy apostasies create an unsustainable tension in the House, or are progressives resigned to “swallowing the toad” and taking whatever they can get?
[I kicked around these questions and more with Jim Lucier of Capital Alpha Partners on the latest episode of The Lobby Shop. You can check out our conversation here.]
At any rate, the spate of dreadful numbers for Democrats this week, both fiscal and political, underscore how precious this opportunity is before the legislative door slams shut for the remainder of President Biden's current term. If 8.5 percent headline inflation and sub-40presidential approval ratings don't impress a sense of urgency at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, nothing will. The tricky part remains translating that urgency into yet-elusive efficacy.
[This is an except from the April 15 PRG weekly reconciliation update. Read the rest of my firm’s reconciliation updates here. And if you like my “Bottom Line” analysis, check out my moderated discussion with my colleague Yasmin Nelson, who pens “The Breakdown” newsletter. Watch on Youtube or listen wherever you get your podcast.]