Priming the Pump on Reconciliation
Faced with summer calendar crunch, Dems fire up the procedural machinery in anticipation of a deal
Towards the end of an otherwise quiet week in Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's ongoing talks with Senator Joe Manchin, word broke that Democrats have begun meeting with the chamber's Parliamentarian regarding a potential budget reconciliation package. Further reports indicate that Schumer's office has been working with the Congressional Budget Office, the official legislative scorekeeper, on the details of such a package. While these steps are not necessarily indicative of a breakthrough in negotiations, they do represent a tacit acknowledgement of the time crunch facing the party as we enter the summer.
Scoring is a precursor to the intensive procedural vetting necessary to advance any package through budget reconciliation without jeopardizing its privileged status. These steps take time, particularly in an iterative process that remains in flux, so having as many of these questions answered and components validated in advance is a wise move. CBO scoring issues repeatedly held up House consideration of the Build Back Better Act back in November, and preliminary meetings with the office of the Parliamentarian were put on hold back in December when the White House's initial talks with Manchin went south. Since then, the package has significantly narrowed in size and scope, making the ultimate "Byrd bath" less daunting, but it remains an obligatory part of the process.
At best, it marks a shift in phases from negotiation to execution. At worst, it reflects a calculated risk that having a package ready to go from a procedural standpoint is worth jumping the gun on a final deal.
Given the time crunch, it's apt to be both. With next week likely to be eaten up by gun safety legislation, and no sign of white smoke on a pre-recess framework, Congress stands to depart from Washington for its Independence Day recess with just three legislative weeks remaining before its annual summer break. With a practical goal, if not a necessity, of having any reconciliation deal wrapped up by August, getting ahead of the procedural curve is critical to keeping such a timeline in play. And with three scheduled September work weeks likely to be dominated by such legislative housekeeping as funding the government and meeting various other fiscal year authorization deadlines, the prospect of packing bicameral reconciliation action into the waning days of the FY22 budget resolution's remaining filibuster-eliding privilege amounts to a Hail Mary.
Practical inflection points for key decisions are approaching fast, and with just 25 overlapping legislative days remaining on the calendar, the technical deadlines are on the horizon. Substantively speaking, quiet is good--until it isn't. In the meantime, Democrats are doing what it takes to keep the process not only alive, but in position, whatever its ultimate configuration might be.
[This is an excerpt from the June 17 PRG weekly reconciliation update. Read the rest of my firm’s reconciliation updates here. And if you like my “Bottom Line” analysis, check out my moderated discussion with my colleague Yasmin Nelson, who pens “The Breakdown” newsletter. Watch on Youtube or listen wherever you get your podcast.]