Let the Good Vibes Roll

Initial thoughts on Harris-Walz

Greetings from the North Country, where I’m taking a break from lake life to offer a some musings on the results of what turned out to be a surprisingly dramatic Democratic veepstakes process.

I must preface all this by saying I am far from a Walz hater, and in fact I called him out as my sleeper pick the day after Biden dropped. I say this as much as a disclaimer as a flex.

He’s a fine pick, full stop. But the hype has gotten so out of control that it’s important to note what he is and what he isn’t.

You don’t rise from national obscurity to online folk hero and “vibes” savior in a matter of two weeks if you don’t possess genuine chops, and perhaps more importantly, an ability to read the political moment. But neither do you toil in relative obscurity for the better part of two decades if you’re a generational talent poised to meaningfully alter a pending Presidential election.

The best way to think about the pairing is that the Harris campaign is casting a 90-day buddy comedy, and Walz is the perfect character actor for the odd couple energy they’re looking for.

In anticipation of the pick, the New York Times asked me to weigh in, albeit with extreme brevity—rating the pick on a scale of 1-10 with how much of a boost it will give the Harris campaign, as well as the enthusiasm it will inspire. [The full scorecard, complete with grades and snap takes from some of my favorite voices in Ross Douthat, Jane Coasten, and Josh Barro, can be found here.]

I gave the Walz pick a 3/10 on the first measure, not because he’ll do a bad job, but because he wasn’t picked to be a game-changer. He’s meant to compliment Harris, bracket Vance, balance the ticket, and generally serve as an ambassador to middle America. In other words, what any pick was expected to do, minus any discrete home-state electoral premium.

In terms of excitement, I gave what I thought was a quite generous 5/10, something that would not have computed a month ago, but at least acknowledges the newfound internet fan club. Such is the burden of having known who Tim Walz was a month ago (to say nothing of a decade ago.)

The Y axis here is being investigated as a felony chart crime

I may have been the wet blanket of the group—or at least the toughest grader—but my narrative contribution was enough to inspire the headline:

What excites you about the pick?

Liam Donovan, Republican strategist An affable character with an avuncular charm befitting a career teacher and coach. Walz’s background as a senior enlisted National Guardsman and his unique path to the governor’s mansion stand out in a sea of elites and strivers. Odd-couple pairing adds cultural and optical balance to the ticket.

What makes you nervous?

Donovan A safe, sturdy pick that the coalition will rally around, but the hesitation to go for the electoral jugular in Shapiro — and the apparent susceptibility to intraparty pressure during the honeymoon phase — should give Democrats pause. It’s all fun and games until you wake up 10,000 votes shy in Pennsylvania.

What goes on the Harris-Walz bumper sticker?

Donovan “Let the good vibes roll.”

“Excited/Nervous” is a poor fit for my oeuvre, but I rolled with it.

I don’t expect Tim Walz to cause any problems for this ticket, and even in the areas where Republicans might see an opening—COVID-era restrictions and post-Floyd recriminations—they are better off keeping their fire trained on Harris herself. And to the extent there is anything to go after him on, it’s the shape-shifting tendencies that mirror that of his running mate. The moderate Congressman from a solid red district with the voting record (and NRA endorsement) to match who transformed into a reliable progressive after his statewide promotion.

But the Walz pick didn’t just fall out of a coconut tree. It exists in the context of all in which we live, in this case, weeks of speculation around whether or not Harris would make the textbook pick of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. Indeed, I even pre-wrote my Shapiro grades first (7/10 and 4/10, respectively) over the weekend before the late suspense compelled me to write one for Walz.

Here it is, for the sake of posterity:

1. On a scale from 1-10, will the pick help or hurt Harris to beat Trump? 1 means no help, 10 means he/she would help crush him. (7) 
2. On a scale from 1-10, how much enthusiasm are they lively to generate? 1 means meh, 10 means people will LOVE this person. (4)

What excites you about the pick

-Despite his brief tenure in the big leagues, Shapiro has a relatively long and largely unexamined career in state and local government that Republicans will seek to make hay of for the first time while aiming to sow divisions within the Democratic ranks. 

What makes you nervous

-Tapping the popular governor of the most pivotal prize on the map is at once a political no-brainer, and a signal that Harris is singularly, ruthlessly, and confidently focused on winning swing voters where it matters rather than anxiously tending to online vibes or fostering intra-party unity.

What goes on the Harris-Shapiro bumper sticker?

It's the Electoral College, Stupid

And this is what it boils down to. Harris had a chance to effectuate a marginal boost in a key state, and instead went with a do-no-harm coalition pleaser. Whether you think that’s a sign of timidity (she kowtowed to online progressives), confidence (things are going so well she’s thinking bigger than 270), or simply a reflection of the personal rapport and comfort level she enjoyed with Walz, this pick will be judged by what happens in November. Like everything else in presidential politics, it will look like a stroke of genius or a colossal mistake, with little room in between.

All that said—and I have stated this from the beginning—this veepstakes only has winners. Walz gets the job he wants and becomes an unlikely star in the process; Shapiro elevates his national profile, keeps his powder dry, and avoids hitching his fate to Harris’; the base gets what they’ve been clamoring for.

But the one with real stakes is Kamala Harris, and she has the next three months to prove she made the right call.