At the risk of sounding like a broken record, another week—indeed, another congressional work period—has passed with no resolution to ongoing reconciliation talks between Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV.) And given Manchin's general practice of avoiding negotiations while back home, one week may effectively amount to three, sending us into mid-July without a clear path forward.
The operative question for Democrats is rapidly shifting from whether they can reach an agreement to whether they can reach an agreement soon enough for it to be enacted. The sluggish pace matters not because the outstanding issues are unresolvable—as discussed in recent updates, most have a logical path to compromise, and those that can't be accommodated may not be dealbreakers under the circumstances—but because the practical timeline is such that Democrats will want to give themselves as much room as possible to allow for final drafting, scoring, and procedural vetting, to say nothing of selling any deal to their narrow respective majorities before advancing it through both chambers. Any reconciliation legislation must clear the Senate by September 30 to retain the privilege necessary to elide the chamber’s filibuster rule and pass with a bare majority. For that to happen comfortably, the earlier they can come to terms with Manchin, the better.
Given the intense focus on Manchin and Schumer, it’s easy to forget that the pivotal West Virginia Senator is not shaping up to be the climactic 50th vote. Once the current talks wrap up, Schumer's final chore will be locking in the support of Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), adding further pressure to the time constraints. While Sinema has been primarily focused on revenue mechanisms to date, and the menu of offsets found in the House Build Back Better legislation amounted to a bespoke pay-for regime constructed around her stated concerns, she has repeatedly proven that she is not someone to be taken for granted. Look for Sinema to have her say in this process before it's all over, which may well entail a mini-saga of its own.
Only then can the procedural evaluation begin in earnest, a stage that could itself take weeks. And while leadership’s preliminary talks with the parliamentarian, and their iterative exchanges with the budgetary scorekeepers, could help make the process more efficient, as discussed last week, the formal Byrd bath cannot occur until the pens are down.
Another time-sensitive wrinkle looms in the House, where thanks to a GOP special election victory in south Texas, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is back down to just four votes to spare. That margin for error may dwindle to as few as two by the time they return from August recess with a full complement. Given that the previous iteration of the reconciliation package held all but one Democrat, the math should still work for the Speaker, but it also means that small yet determined blocs are in a position to make waves before it's all said and done. And as if on cue, murmurs from familiar quarters havebegun to resurface, with Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) reiterating his “no SALT, no dice” hard line. Whether or not you believe a handful of rank-and-file members are prepared to scuttle a deal, such 11th hour posturing cannot be helpful to the smooth and swift endgame Democrats desire. It should be noted, however, that the closer the Senate comes to its fiscal year procedural horizon, the starker the take-it-or-leave-it proposition facing the House.
In any event, the sprint is on to wrap up talks, write a bill, and wrangle votes in short order. In addition to the tough substantive choices leadership will be faced with, they also need to grapple with their commitment to keeping their members in town, through scheduled vacations if necessary, until the deal is done. A consensus agreement before the next break in the legislative calendar keeps things on track, however narrowly; if we find ourselves pondering these same questions on the eve of August recess it should set off alarm bells.
[This is an excerpt from the June 24 PRG weekly reconciliation update. Read the rest of my firm’s reconciliation updates here. And if you like my “Bottom Line” analysis, check out my moderated discussion with my colleague Yasmin Nelson, who pens “The Breakdown” newsletter. Watch on Youtube or listen wherever you get your podcast.]