Everything's Coming Up Daines

A big week for the NRSC chair, and the odds of a GOP majority

The honor of Best Week in Washington goes to Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT)—and it’s not particularly close.

Toward the beginning of the week, we might have declared Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) the minority leader in the clubhouse after Democrats easily flipped the Long Island seat previously held by Rep. George Santos (R-Rikers), further eroding the threadbare GOP majority, and lowering the necessary November pickup threshold to a net of 4 seats. And while ex-Rep. Tom Suozzi’s (D-NY) convincing win is just the latest reminder that the path to a Democratic majority runs through the Empire State, Thursday’s reveal of the independent redistricting commission’s surprisingly equitable proposed lines put Dems in Albany (and DC) in a tough spot. Do they take another shot at an aggressive gerrymander that risks being thrown out by the courts (again), or accept the modest gains and hope the political winds do the rest? We’ll find out in the weeks to come, but I suspect Jeffries didn’t come this far to win a few modest tweaks to the existing map.

So why Daines? After a relatively quiet first year to his tenure as Chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), over the past week his careful, deliberate strategy began to bear fruit across the map.

Since the tectonic shift of Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) retirement gave Republicans a presumptive 50th seat, the map has been fairly stable, if not entirely static, with the GOP’s structural advantage mitigated by their historic propensity for political self-harm. Everyone understands that an outright majority will be won or lost in Montana and Ohio, the last redoubt of the luckiest Senate class of all-time. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) are nothing if not proven survivors, and only a fool would count them out, let alone take for granted Republicans’ ability to get out of their own way.

Any handicapping of the Senate has to grapple with the ghosts of cycles past, ranging from the horrors of the most recent midterm, to a veritable boneyard of Tea Party-era electoral failure. With the exception of one shining moment, the successful fusion effort of 2014, strategic errors and tactical missteps have haunted Senate Republicans for a decade and a half. With the antagonistic role of the outside groups eclipsed by the chaotic primacy of Donald Trump, GOP leaders traded a hostile counterparty they had figured out for a nominal ally they hadn’t.

From the beginning, Daines set out determined to change this, declaring in late 2022 “we’re gonna do whatever it takes to win.” As a baseline matter, that meant coordinating early and often with Trump himself. Daines turned heads an early backer of the former President’s 2024 campaign, endorsing at a moment when he appeared uniquely vulnerable, and marshaling support among his Senate colleagues.

It also meant ditching the disastrous laissez faire strategy of the midterms, and opting for a more hands-on approach.

In Montana (or is it Mawn-tawnah?), Daines spent the past year directing traffic in ways that might have drawn howls of DC meddling in previous cycles, but that he was able to pull off as the state’s senior Republican. Not only did Daines hand-pick his preferred recruit in businessman and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, in an effort to box out losing 2018 MTSEN nominee and current Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT), he lined up support from Gov. Greg Gianforte (R-MT) and the state’s other member of Congress, Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-MT.)

Undeterred, Rosendale jumped into the race last late week, much to the delight of Tester and national Dems. The rollout was pre-empted by the news that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) planned to endorse, a scoop that almost immediately prompted disavowal from Johnson’s team, an embarrassing affair that would nonetheless prove to be the campaign’s high point. On Friday, just hours after Rosendale’s official entry, former President Trump posted his endorsement of Sheehy on Truth Social. Within days Rosendale withdrew from the race, citing Trump’s endorsement. In less than a week, Republicans had neatly resolved a primary clash that might have otherwise cost them the seat, instead emerging as the odds on favorites.

But Montana was just the beginning.

In news that sent hearts aflutter across the beltway, former two-term Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) announced last week that he would run for the state’s open Senate seat, a surprise from a pol who has courted Presidential attention, compounded by the fact that Republicans had tried and failed to recruit him for years. Hogan remains an underdog despite solid polling numbers, but his entry draws attention and resources to a state that had not previously been on anyone’s mind. The nomination of wealthy wine magnate Rep. David Trone (D-MD) would help put Dem minds at ease, but a primary upset by PG County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) would fundamentally change the race.

A less heralded development with a bigger impact on the map occurred this week in Michigan, where former Detroit police chief and MAGA firebrand James Craig suspended his Senate campaign, clearing the way for Daines’ pick, ex-Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI). The primary features other formidable candidates like ex-Rep. Pete Meijer (R-MI), but it was a nomination of Craig that threatened to take the open seat battleground off the board. Democrats will likely have a solid candidate in Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), but Republicans are suddenly all but assured to field a competitive ticket.

The list goes on.

In Wisconsin, a Presidential battleground Senate Republicans successfully defended in 2022, Republicans landed Eric Hovde, a wealthy self-funder who came in a close second to former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R-WI) in the 2012 primary for the right to take on then-Rep. Baldwin. Hovde is not Republicans’ first choice by any means, but he’s a known entity with the resources to run a real campaign without a reliance on the national party. This had been arguably the biggest hole in GOP recruiting efforts to date.

Even in seldom-watched New Mexico, a onetime battleground ground where the GOP has fallen on hard times, Daines has a respectable candidate in place, clearing the field for Nella Domenici, daughter of 6-term former Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM), the state’s longest serving senator and its most recent Republican.

Daines’ critics will point to Arizona, where the committee has now officially backed 2022 Gov nominee Kari Lake. But this is an acknowledgement of the inevitable, and a calculated effort to make the best of a challenging situation. Even if anyone were poised to beat Lake, bruising August primaries have cost Arizona Republicans both senate seats in recent years, with Democrats stockpiling cash and running toward the middle. The unconventional race shaping up in Arizona may place the shoe on the other foot.

None of this is a guarantee that Republicans will have a big night in November—too much is caught up in the national environment to have any idea what happens beyond the red state targets. But the job of the NRSC chair is to put the pieces in place, expand the map as much as possible, and force Democrats to stretch their resources, strain their bandwidth, and adjust their strategies. So far Daines is doing the best job imaginable, and leaving nothing to chance.

On the Pod

This week on The Lobby Shop, we sit down with my good friend and former colleague John Lee. John serves as Chief of Staff to frontline freshman Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D-IL), giving him a front row seat to the magnificent splendor of the 118th Congress. He also happens to be one of the smartest people I know on Capitol Hill, so I recommend checking it out. As always, if you have ideas or suggestions for future guests, please let me know.

In the News

I spoke to Jonathan Nicholson for his Huffington Post piece on the challenge of getting around House leadership to move a bill that otherwise has majority support.

“It’s a dreadfully slow, cumbersome, and brittle process that is not well suited for anything dynamic or urgent,” said Liam Donovan, a former Republican Hill staffer and a partner at lobbying firm Bracewell LLP.

…

Donovan said forcing the Senate bill onto the floor could take at least 40 days using a new discharge petition, and using the petition originally set up for the debt limit would mean sending the bill back to the Senate for final passage, which would also add time.

“In other words, it’s a terrible option that may eventually prove to be the cleanest dirty shirt,” he said. Donovan noted another option for giving aid to Ukraine may be forthcoming negotiations over how to avoid a government shutdown: “The big question in the meantime is how the House deals with regular appropriations, and whether these conversations can be merged.”

Read the full piece here.

Of course, what people mean when they talk about discharge could be better accomplished by simpler, more immediate procedural means, namely by defeating the previous question, thereby seizing control of the floor agenda.

As with most things, it’s ultimately less a question of process than it is political will.

---

Amid my annual twitter hiatus, I intend to post more regularly, but without the same torrid information flow, I could use some prompts. If you have any burning questions or interesting storylines, drop me a line.