This post is wildly overdue, but it’s been a busy few weeks here at Reef HQ, mistaken identify shenanigans notwithstanding (IYKYK.) I wanted to make sure to fire something off if only to make sure you had a chance to check out my wide-ranging conversation with Puck News’ Tara Palmeri on this week’s episode of her Ringer podcast, Somebody’s Gotta Win. We cover a ton of ground, and I hope you find it to be a fun listen.
But lest this just turn into a big content dump (and to be fair, there is a good bit of content), I reckon I owe it to you the reader to offer a few thoughts on where things stand.
This thing is close. Like, really close.
For all the grumbles over polling average methodologies, they all basically agree on this. No matter the threshold for inclusion, the weighting, the adjustments, or whatever other special sauce they bring to bear, every polling average you might seek out shows things tight as a tick in the seven states that matter, with Pennsylvania serving as the tipping point in each.
538/Silver Bulletin/VoteHub: Harris 276-Trump 262
RCP: Trump 281-Harris 257 (Unlike the others, Trump leads PA by 0.2)
SplitTicket: Harris 292-Trump 246 (Unlike the others, Harris leads NC by 0.2)
The three I’ve been working with most closely, Silver Bulletin, VoteHub, and RCP, all show the entire pool of battleground states within a 2 point margin; all have Harris leading a national ballot test by 2-3 points, squarely in the zone of maximum uncertainty. (On this last point, Nate Silver does a nice job looking at the modeled probabilities according to the popular vote.)
And while we’re accustomated to notion of close races, this polling is truly unique as a historical matter. As CNN’s Harry Enten notes, this is the first time in more than 60 years where neither candidate has led by more than 5pts.
Harris peaked, but she has since steadied the ship.
The Veep saw some inevitable mean-reversion after the extended sugar high that culminated in Chicago—she has narrowly lost ground in 6 of 7 swing states since the end of August—but a spate of solid results from high quality pollsters in the wake of the debate triumph has allowed her to maintain the narrowest of edges.
A bull case exists for either side.
Harris is the clear if narrow polling leader, and she has the look of a winner if only based on the well-executed strategy over the course of the abbreviated campaign. Her image is suddenly net favorable for the first time since July of 2021(!), an improvement of 17 points in just two months. She enjoys the more motivated base, a growing resource advantage, and will benefit from a significant edge on the ground. And without a robust market for third party candidates, the threshold for victory is likely to be closer to 2020 than Trump’s 2016 win number.
Trump is polling significantly better today than he did at any point in either his victorious 2016 campaign or his near miss in 2020. Despite a flawless rollout, two months of unabated news cycle dominance, and the conspicuous benevolence of the mainstream media, Kamala Harris barely leads, and by some measures narrowly trails. Trump has an edge on the issue voters say they care most about (the economy), is less likely to be seen as too ideological, and is viewed by most as a change candidate in a cycle where the last thing they want is more of the same.
[Harris’ is the easier one to write at the moment, but the case certainly exists.]
The Senate is slipping away from Democrats.
This one may be old news if you’ve been paying attention, but the leading handicappers, some of whom have an abiding deference to incumbents, have now moved Jon Tester’s Montana seat from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Republican,” meaning the GOP is now favored in enough seats for an outright majority. While a Montana pick-up isn’t necessary under a Trump victory scenario, it would be the death knell for a Harris legislative agenda, while throwing into doubt her ability to confirm personnel, from the federal agencies to the bench.
The election has already begun.
Less than 50 days out, it’s worth noting that this campaign has already been turned upside down in a shorter period—more than once! But with in-person absentee voting beginning earlier this week in all-important Pennsylvania, and in-person early voting beginning Friday here in Virginia, it’s a reminder that this race is being parbaked as we speak. Yes, there is time for things to change, but every banked vote is a hedge against events to come.
That’s all I’ve got for now, but I promise there’s more on the pod(s.)
On the Podcasts
The aforementioned episode of Somebody’s Gotta Win with Tara Palmeri
Some home cooking over at The Lobby Shop podcast, where we break down the debate
The Weekly Roundup on the Politicology podcast, hosted by my old NRSC colleague Ron Steslow
On TV
Analyzing the Cheney family endorsement with Laura Coates and company on CNN
Discussing the looming tax cliff with Dagen & Duffy on Fox Business
On the web
Scoring the presidential debate with the New York Times Opinion section